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1. Background

This article is grounded in the findings from three concurrent research projects conducted in the European Union, the United States, and the United Kingdom. These projects aimed to investigate the career progression of 581 students who had completed Powder Brows and Microblading training during the Covid and Post-Covid era, specifically from 2020 to 2022. The students involved in this research were surveyed 12 to 15 months after completing their courses and earning certifications to perform the procedures.

The study included a diverse set of participants, both those who had undergone small group and individual training and those who were part of more extensive group training sessions. This data was then cross-referenced with information gathered from many active artists in similar geographical areas, data which had been collected for separate but related projects. Notably, the student participants came from various educational backgrounds: some had been trained by more prominent, well-known international academies, while others had received their education from smaller-brow education providers or individual trainers. As we will explore in the results section of this article, the challenges these starting artists faced were less influenced by the academy or educational structure they came from and more by other variables.

2. Perception Versus Reality

Many artists entering the field have the self-perception that they've conducted sufficient or even exhaustive market research before enrolling in their training programs. Interestingly, the research unearthed a significant disconnect between this perception and the subsequent realities these artists faced. More than 84% of the students indicated, 12 to 15 months after earning their certifications, that the actual business landscape was either "harder" or "considerably harder" than they had initially anticipated.

This reveals an intriguing phenomenon: despite the participants' confidence in their prior market analysis, they often found themselves ill-prepared for the real-world intricacies of running a Powder Brows, Hairstrokes, or Microblading business. When confronted with the day-to-day realities, many recognized various complexities and challenges they had not initially considered or foreseen.

Considering the data from 2020-2022 alongside the current economic downturn in 2024, it appears that the gap between expectations and reality for new students in this field may be even wider than anticipated. We have conducted several smaller research projects to delve deeper into this issue. The findings from these studies suggest that while today’s students entering the classes are aware of the challenging market environment, they might not fully grasp the extent of its harshness.

3. Observations about satisfaction

Encouraging News: Only 26% Found Technical Preparation Inadequate

On a somewhat positive note, a surprisingly low percentage of students - only 26% - identified "insufficient technical preparation" as the primary reason for their struggles in reconciling expectations with reality in their new businesses. This statistic doesn't necessarily mean that the quality of training across different educational systems is universally adequate. Instead, it suggests that most students attribute their challenges to factors other than the technical skills provided by their training programs.

Moreover, this finding also implies that the issue often lies not in the technical training itself but in the mismatch between students' expectations and the real-world demands of the industry. In many instances, it appears that trainers adequately impart the necessary technical skills but may release students into the competitive marketplace without adequately tempering unrealistic expectations about potential earnings.õ

This suggests that trainers may not adequately convey the challenges of attracting customers, particularly those entering the pigmentation field from a different career path. This oversight could partly stem from the trainers' inability to fully grasp the stark reality of having no incoming client contacts from all sales channels without extensive marketing efforts. While these trainers have experienced a decrease in organic engagement and reach, they often haven't faced a situation of complete silence in terms of client interest.

For new students transitioning from other careers, this scenario of no organic interest could be their initial reality. More concerning is when their sales funnel is so ineffective (often due to lack of brand recognition and a strong portfolio) that the cost of acquiring a paying customer surpasses what that customer is willing to pay. Such a predicament might be difficult for an experienced trainer to recognize or understand. Yet, this is precisely the challenging environment a novice artist might encounter, especially in areas with intense competition.

12 Months Post-Class: 70-85% Contemplate Exiting the Field Entirely

An alarming 70-85% of students who completed training in powder brows and microblading seriously considered leaving the field entirely one year after their classes. Further inquiries revealed that the primary reason for this sentiment was not dissatisfaction with the quality of education they received. Instead, the critical issue was a growing disillusionment with the overall industry. Launching and sustaining a business in this field proved to be much more challenging than they had initially expected.

Next, we'll delve into the specific factors contributing to this sentiment. Notably, although the ranking of the top three reasons fluctuated depending on the country, the fundamental issues remained consistent across different regions.

4. Overestimation of Inbound Business

If we liken starting a business in powder brows or microblading to rowing a boat across a river, the most common obstacle for many students was not the turbulent water or unfavorable weather conditions. Instead, it was more akin to not making it "properly into the water to start rowing." In simpler terms, many students could never apply their newly acquired technical skills in the real world.

Expectations Fueled by Perception Alone

To delve deeper into this issue, let's look at some numbers. Roughly 54% of the students had developed some form of a business plan before their training, including estimations concerning future sales. However, students readily admitted that these projections lacked precision and were not backed by sufficient data. Many based their expectations on observations like "other artists are constantly working with clients." In the realm of business forecasting, such vague indicators are an unreliable foundation upon which to build one's expectations.

Harshest Clash with Reality: Zero Inbound Business

Many starting artists openly acknowledged that their most glaring miscalculation lay in their expectations of a baseline level of inbound business. The reality turned out to be much more sobering. When you have some business, you can always tweak messaging and pricing based on customer feedback. A slight influx of paying customers or leads presents opportunities for adjustments and improvements.

5. The "Zero to One" Dilemma

For many artists, their struggle closely echoed the concept Peter Thiel describes in his book "Zero to One." Specifically, they had no clear understanding of how distant they were from securing any business at all. Following the initial stage - often described by experienced artists as the "honeymoon period” - the inflow of business dried up completely. They received no contacts expressing any interest in their brow services. Even worse, they were left without a clue as to how far they were from generating any leads. They found themselves in a situation where mere adjustments wouldn't suffice; they needed a vertical leap to gain traction. Often, the height of this leap turned out to be insurmountably high.

The challenge of moving from a situation with virtually no clients (“zero”) to securing minimal viable business (“one”) is far more complex than it might initially appear, particularly in terms of business planning. When the influx of customers is minimal or almost non-existent, it becomes nearly impossible to accurately estimate how close one might be to reaching a break-even point and achieving a minimally viable business. The feasibility of overcoming this hurdle varies significantly. In some instances, making specific adjustments could lead to success. However, in other scenarios, particularly considering factors such as location and the overall business climate, reaching profitability for a particular artist, given their social media presence and other resources, may seem almost unattainable, as if it were in a completely different realm of possibility. Thus, one should critically acknowledge that logic and not rule out the possibility that without major changes, achieving any continuous profitability may not be a question of “polishing” one’s existing approach a little bit, but it might be in another conceptual universe entirely, lightyears away, requiring major leaps and a totally new approach.

Valuable Lesson: Plan for Zero Inbound Business

Preparing a business plan beforehand is crucial if you are considering enrolling in a powder brows or microblading training program. In this plan, the starting artist should factor in zero inbound business. If any business does come your way, treat it as a delightful bonus. But if none comes, you won't be caught off guard, as zero business should be your default forecast. This approach aligns your expectations with a realistic outlook, setting you up for a more measurable path to success.

6. Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)

The Underestimation of Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC)

The concept of Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) is closely related to the first reason we discussed - overestimation of inbound leads. Though they are interlinked, if one has to pick between two challenges, this one is arguably better to confront. It wasn't that students were unaware of the necessity of digital media marketing. Instead, their long-term cost estimates for customer acquisition were astronomically off from the actual expenses - by about 100 times!

The Discrepancy: Expectations Versus Reality

This substantial divergence in expectations and reality is a classic example of heuristic errors. Students generally believed that for every 100 people they reached through their marketing efforts, approximately three would reach out to either make a booking or inquire about the service. The real-world data told a different story: the actual number was closer to 0.03 people out of 100 making contact. This massive underestimation is a wake-up call for starting artists to rethink and recalibrate their customer acquisition strategies.

“Boosting Is Needed" vs. The Reality of Marketing Budget

While many students knew that they would likely need to "boost" their services through advertising, they often failed to account for the costs of creating and running ads. The financial reality of acquiring a hot lead was so overwhelming that it entirely consumed their modest marketing budgets. Upon closer examination, we identified the following root causes for this significant discrepancy between expectation and reality.

Expectations Based on Hearsay: Astonishingly, many students' budget estimates were based on casual conversations or generalized statements from other artists in the field.
Outdated Calculations: Many students claimed to have had empirical "first-hand experience" with social media advertising. However, it became clear that this experience was outdated. They relied on ratios of organic reach to advertised reach and engagement pricing from past, more favorable auction conditions.
Misjudgment of Social Media Capabilities: A staggering 91% of students had also significantly underestimated the effort and cost needed to grow their social media accounts organically. They often compared their budding accounts to well-established ones, assuming that growth would be far more accessible and less costly than it actually was.

Drastic miscalculations regarding relative organic growth

Additionally, for those reasons and relation to those, students acknowledged a stark drop in interest after the “honeymoon period”. Regarding the account growth expectations organically (without buying fake followers), many students had to admit that the accounts that they expected to “catch up” were actually so much ahead when it comes to followers numbers that it would have taken them 18-36 months of hard work and “unpredictable budget” to catch up. Just one more somewhat expectable aspect only 6% of students had factored in was related to the relative growth or competitive accounts. Staggering 94% had made their superficial plans effectively, pre-supposing that competitive accounts would actually halt their progress to “wait for them to catch up.” In other words, they did not factor in the logic that larger accounts of well-known artists in their region that they framed their starting account against, would actually probably grow even quicker than their account, further increasing the difference.

Lesson to learn from that When planning to join a powder brows or microblading training, making a business plan first pays off. Into this plan, a starting artist should include 0 inbound business. If that happens, it can be considered a great bonus, and if it does not, then that should be the default forecast.

7. Shallow Analysis of Competition

The third reason ties closely to the first two and revolves around the students' significant misjudgments concerning competition. Specifically, 63% of students admitted that they were unsure what their competitive edge would be. Upon closer investigation, this issue was found to have three interrelated components.

Misjudging the Impact of Pricing Strategies

This is primarily connected to the problem of reaching an adequate audience. Over half of the students (57%) believed that there would be a pricing point at which their offer would become irresistibly competitive due to its excellent price-to-value ratio. However, this assumption proved to be flawed on multiple levels. One of the key issues was that the cost of effectively marketing that offer to a sufficient number of potential customers inflated the actual net cost of performing the procedure. Essentially, it didn't matter how much they lowered their price; the associated marketing costs would negate any profits they hoped to make from the procedure.

It's crucial to recognize that performing a procedure is rarely cost-free. An artist might consider their own time as having no alternative cost, which is a reasonable assumption. Yet, this doesn't account for the myriad of other expenses involved. These costs include proportional rent for each procedure, supplies, transportation, communication, marketing, and even basic living expenses like housing and food. When tallying up all these necessary costs for starting the business, the harsh reality becomes evident: many promotional discounts or simply setting a lower price point might actually require the artist to seek additional funding. This is because the cumulative operating costs can surpass the total income from client fees. Therefore, the artist invests more money in such cases to continue offering services at lower rates or discounted prices.

Underestimating Competitors' Adaptability

We touched on this earlier in this article. Students often significantly underestimated how their competitors would adapt to market changes. Rather than maintaining a "status quo," competitors were often found to be dynamically adapting to evolving market conditions. This suggests that many students mistakenly assumed market conditions would remain static. They thought that competitors' offerings, marketing activities, and discount strategies would remain the same as they were when the students first started their training. The reality was often much more aggressive.

Misjudging Actual Market Prices

Another related aspect that many students miscalculated involves the pricing set by active artists in the field. Many students entered the industry with a vague perception of "high prices," which fueled dreams of substantial earnings. However, when they conducted more thorough research as practicing artists themselves, over half discovered that their competitors were charging less than they had initially thought. Specifically, students found that competitors were asking, on average, 25-40% less for their services than the students had assumed.

Hierarchical Cannibalization: A Hidden Challenge

You might find it surprising, but one specific sub-category of competition that complicates launching a career in this field is "hierarchical cannibalization." So, what does that term mean? Basically, if the student's trainer operates within the same geographical area, they will likely compete for the same clients. The geographical scope is generally defined as either within an approximate 120-mile radius or within driving time ranging from one to 1.5 hours.

When does cannibalization not occur? Direct competition is less likely if the trainer's price point is significantly higher—by over 120% than the student's. However, if the prices are similar, cannibalization is almost inevitable. This isn't limited to the trainer-student relationship; the same principle applies to academy hierarchies. Here, cannibalization can be triggered by any artist in the same geographical area who holds a "higher status level" within the organizational system.

8. Takeaways and Lessons Learned

Creating promotional offers isn't a guaranteed pathway to profitability. More often than not, these promotions require a substantial upfront investment, which means you're putting resources in rather than taking money out. Never underestimate the agility and adaptability of established competitors. Contrary to what many students initially think, these "old movers" can quickly adapt and fiercely protect their market share when they feel threatened.

Furthermore, a surprising realization for many new artists is that competition can also come from within their training ecosystem. Trainers and other high-ranking artists within the same academy system or geographical area may, in fact, become direct competitors, often "taking bread off the table," so to speak, from the very students they've trained.

9. Conclusions

When it comes to launching a successful career as a brow artist, the numbers tell a sobering story. A significant 84% of new artists underestimate the challenges they will face, even though a large majority- 74% to be exact - believed they had sufficiently analyzed the situation beforehand. This points to a common overestimation of their ability to assess market conditions and business opportunities accurately. A year into their venture, between 75-85% of students, depending on their backgrounds, have seriously considered abandoning the business altogether.

The three major stumbling blocks students encounter when confronted with the realities of the industry are a lack of inbound business, the high cost of customer acquisition, and stiff competition. These factors explain why only 26% of students attribute any potential failure to inadequate technical skills gained during their training.

Contrary to their expectations, most students found that inbound business was virtually non-existent. They also vastly underestimated the costs of generating "hot leads" through social media marketing. On average, students estimated these costs to be a staggering 1000% lower than they actually were. Over 90% had naively thought that organically growing their social media accounts would be more straightforward than it was.

One of the most glaring miscalculations regarding competition was overestimating the impact of low-price offers. Many students believed they could lure customers with enticingly low prices, only to discover that the marketing costs associated with these promotions essentially wiped out any profits. Likewise, many new artists misjudged their competitors' adaptability and pricing strategies. Additionally, the internal competition or "hierarchical cannibalization" within training academies was an overlooked aspect that further complicated their entry into the market.